Modelling protective behaviour in response to mosquito-borne epidemics
Please login to view abstract download link
If humans protect themselves against mosquito bites, can we contain vector-borne epidemics? We examine a model for mosquito-borne epidemics in which it is assumed that individuals may adopt protective behaviours against mosquito bites when informed of an ongoing epidemic. The model is based on Ross-Macdonald assumptions, according to which mosquito biting rate is constant, and bites are distributed among protected humans, unprotected humans, and other mammals. Assuming that host behaviour cannot change, we show that the reproduction number of the epidemic (and thus its outbreak potential) may increase or decrease depending on the fraction of individuals adopting protecting behaviour, on the effectiveness of protection, and on the ratio between other potential host and human population. When information on the current and past prevalence influences the adoption of protective measures, simulations show that the initial dynamics of the infection may change (relative to an epidemic without behavioural changes) in a way corresponding to what is found for the static case. However, in the longer term, multiple infection waves may be observed.